ROBO-REALITIES

There is no doubt that the reality of robocars is upon us.

Google is but one of many deep-pocketed companies developing the necessary software and contingent hardware. World auto manufacturers are jockeying to keep up with and form corporate alliances. University classes and programs are engaging students at all robocars levels, using different names. The current “autonomous vehicle” moniker is hardly likely to stick in our ever-evolving techno-English.

The question isn’t whether robocars -- and robo-vans, robo-buses, robo-trucks and robo-SUVs -- will come into our future. Rather, it is how fast and with what trajectories as street vehicles will become smarter and safer. How should the public sector react?  Analysts and investors are eyeing road automation opportunities and high-growth startups. Are robo-roads a more cost-effective investment that the spaghetti of elevated PRT guidedways and stations?

ATN proponents argue that robocars don’t solve congestion and parking problems. They project visions of small vehicles confined to a guideway network (that has to be extensive to be useful). This fixed infrastructure is costly and perhaps offensive. In this way PRT service can be faster than street traffic, and inherently safer. Guideways and stations can easily incorporate solar power collectors. 

But letting those vehicles exit the guideway network to be by driven -- by people or IT -- over streets in what was termed "dual-mode transit" in the 1970s opens up new levels of coverage and even higher levels of service. DMT is the liaison between class PRT and road traffic (automated or not).

PRT vehicles stay at stations (blue dots), whereas DMT vehicles can exit the 'system' and circlulate on streets.
- maps courtesy of LogistikCentrum.

Dual Mode Bridges the Gap

The good thing about tensions between PRT and robocars is that it lifts our level of thinking to a long-range function. What are current and future modal options? What kind of transportation and community life do we want? 

In seeking answers to these questions, policy analysts and investment advisers in urban (land) infrastructure make trade-offs with many environmental and economic factors.

Since the ATN scenario is purely hypothetical, so too is dual-mode transit on a large scale. DMT is simply an open PRT system. Vehicles are designed to be able to exit the guideway and run on roads or other pathways powered by batteries. The speed and range limitations of batteries become irrelevant: the guideways recharge them. Like PRT, DMT can be pursued at metro, regional, mega-regional and national levels.

BOSTON BREAK-UP

Like most states across the US, Massachusetts is in fiscal crisis. Infrastructure needs are especially great after a tough winter in Boston. Revenues are short, and few funds are coming from Washington.

The “T” (Boston’s transit agency, the MBTA) is especially hard hit. Unions are worried that worker well-being is at risk with as new Republican governor sets out a new political agenda.

What future for taxi drivers?
And train conductor?

Applications for cab drivers are down. They are up for Uber. So taxi owners and drivers anxiously watch as a rewriting of state and municipal regulations for taxi, limousines and related public conveyances take place. Complicating this volatile mix, Bridj is expanding app-accessed bus service throughout the historic Hub of the Universe. Meanwhile, MIT hums with new technology ideas.

Several state senators are excited about mobility innovation for the Commonwealth. Hearing PRT pitches from Jpods, they say they are ready to take a fresh look at new options and move ahead. 

Boston Strong; Boston First

Boston, Cambridge and other Bay State boosters brag that the very notion of independent local government began there. There may be historical validity to the claim that Massachusetts set the mould for many states and towns across the US.

Boston certainly had a prominent role in thinking through and catalyzing the War of Independence from King George. In fact, in Boston today tourists visit a replica of the ship from which tea from England was dumped into the harbor, launching armed conflict that broke us off from royal tyranny!

Well respected environmental activist, planning visionary and Jpods fan Judeth van Hamm points to many Massachusetts transportation firsts. The first steamboat churned up the mighty Hudson River in New York State, but the first steamboat service was in the Bay State in 1818.  At the end of the nineteenth century, electrification of a railroad to Hull and Boston’s underground light rail, now the Green Line, were US firsts.

Under Harvard Square 20th century subway and trolleybus
 interstect. What for the 21st?

During the auto-drunk twentieth century, Massachusetts was the first to embrace a circumferential highway -- Route 128, re-designated I-95, encircling Boston and dominating suburban life.

2015 Steps

Alden (Morgantown) and Raytheon made for podcar innovation place in Massachusetts in the second half of last century. But no new modal infrastructure was built, and Harvard thinkers shunned the idea, advising that the best thing to do about congestion is to not worry about it. Now new Massachusetts moves are coming forth. A Jpods mockup will be on display in Boston May 19 as part of meetings with Boston officials.

For more info, contact Judeth at one@hullportside.net.

FEED YOUR METROS:

Global event organizers Terrapinn can take credit for an energetic Dubai rail conference last month. Mideast Rail 2015 took place in the largest of the United Arab Emirates -- the high-growth zone on the southern shore of the Persian Gulf. Hundreds of participants and scores of active booths by exhibitors from all over the world were abuzz with local Emiratis and influential transport professionals with credible budgets in variegated accents of Arabic. The Program was in English and Arabic, with aisle talk also in Punjabi, Farsi and other tongues.

Figure 1   Access to Dubai’s metro stations could be neatly enhanced with small scale systems such as podcars.

The growing regional metro market totals up to billions, maybe trillions of dollars -- or dirhams, dinars or riyals. Most will be driverless - in Madinah, Riyadh, Dohai etc. The reality of Dubai’s stunningly successful driverless metro, first segment opened in 2009, inspires to that degree. Dubai’s driverless metro is quite superb -- well-used and user-friendly. It has served growing volumes of passengers over the last six years without major incident. 

This is a major credit to Dubai’s leaders and to the very international team that pulled it off -- Wilbur Smith, Systra, MHI, Thales, Serco, …… and many more. The metro has been fast-tracked over 20km out to Jebel Ali. Many brag that it is the world’s largest driverless network with a long stretches parallel to a flat, straight highway. In this corridor that heads to Abu Dhabi, lots of modern desert urban development is in place, and more underway. . 

Dubai’s metro lacks modern, small-scale circulators. Seven pairs of slick moving walks awkwardly connect the Mall of Dubai. A manual streetcar links another station to the slow, bumpy (automated) Hitachi monorail that runs out the trunk of Palm Jumeirah. But no neat circulators or podcar networking extend the reach of stations. Sadly, there wasn't any talk of such intermodalities at MER-2015.

Figure 2   Long walks to the Mall of Dubai.

High-speed rail was on the agenda. Multiple plans, visions and protocols trend to the creation of regional rail system, and high-level discussions are underway. Major HSR stations should have easy interfaces with metro lines and district circulators. Intermodality should be on the agenda for Mideast Rail 2016.

HYPER-TOD IN MAKKAH

TOD is a term popular in urban planning. In discussions of densities in city and suburb, Transit-Oriented Development is a new take on the old notion that density goes hand in hand with access transport infrastructure. Higher density should be at transit stations. Most US growth is better described as Interstate -oriented.

One good example of American TOD is the Ashmont station of Boston’s Red Line. Instead of one-story retail with parking, TOD principles led to a 15-story apartment tower right next to “T” station. It works well. A modest success of a Bostonian scale. It would be bigger in New Work or Chicago. In Texas, TOD is more likely to mean 4-story apartments each with “only” one parking space.

Picture of a Model of a Vision for Human Intensity near the Kaaba.

Most American neighborhood groups fret about density, mostly because of the increased traffic it will bring. Suburban Americans spend much of their lives driving, sitting in traffic and worrying about where to park. To many, TOD is but a ruse to soothe those worried about more traffic that higher density.

Makkah Embraces Intensity

Not so in one of the Holy cities of the Hejaz, the western part of Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea across from Egypt. Here, density is embraced in full pedestrian mode. Few pilgrims to Makkah arrive by car. Officials already have a monorail to serve Hajj guests, and more lines are planned. Foreseeing growth and higher levels of pilgrimage in coming years, high-density development is planned for the heart of the jewel of the Red Sea.

The state of the art of urban transport modality is the focus of Terrapinn’s conference March 17-18 in Dubai. Where do podcars fit into the menu of planners -- not just in Makkah but throughout the Middle World and Africa and beyond? Driverless taxis, vans and buses? Driverless metros? PRT?  Will these be discussed at Mideast Rail 2015?

Peter Muller of PRT Consulting has been invited to speak at a Saudi university. Taxi 2000 participated in detailed application studies in Abu Dhabi. What else is occurring in the ministries of Kuwait, Oman and the UAE?

If  transit programs are implemented with the intensity of TOD plans in the heart of Makkah, visions of more sustainable urban live begin to appear.

BOSTON’s Sub- HUBS

The neighborhoods of Boston are waking up to the exciting new prospects of networked transit.  This month a group of concerned citizens and Boston’s Transportation Director will meet with Bill James, the main force behind Jpods.  This may inspire the MBTA to think in a networked way.

Boston Back Bay streets are traffic-tamed and pedestrian friendly. Could a pod hub be retrofitted in?

Boston, Cambridge and other communities are inventing mobility futures in the age of Zipcars, Bridj and Uber.  Midway through the second decade of the 21^st century -- it is time to rethink public infrastructure policies. That means primarily but not exclusively transportation, and it is clear to that our future should be free of fossil fuels.

How far out can Boston envision a next-gen transit network? Is 2020 too soon? Or is it better to think to 2030 and work backwards to determine the first phase?

What Neighborhood Hubs for the Hub?

Where should stations or simpler “mobility hubs” be? Where in your neighborhood is the best site for a mobility “portal” that interfaces with existing MBTA and commuter rail stations?

Boston neighborhoods have many
architectural gems.

What destinations in Dorchester, Roxbury, JP, Fenway-Longwood  and Kenmore should be part of a network 2030?  Should it extend further to Brighton, Forest Hill? South Boston? Will Brookline and Cambridge join in for a larger look at “Boston-as-Hub”?

Judeth van Hamm and her varied team are opening important dialogs with those who commune in these districts.  She and Bill James both integrate solar power collection and use into their designs.

NEW PARADIGMS OF MOBIILTY

Driverless cars are changing everything about urban mobility. Uber has raised billions of dollars to work with. The former head of world transit recently observed that cities being "invaded" by new mobility entrepreneurs.

Self-driving cars change the paradigms of personal, community, service and corporate operations. Delivery of restaurant and shopping items is possible with robo-carts: experiments are underway in Santa Monica. Tomorrow’s smart taxi and shuttle services will operate in new ways that should lower the cost of taking a cab. Ride-sharing flourishes, Who know what lifestyles will be in 2020, let alone 2030 and beyond?

Podcars extend the reach of metro stations.

Even with a temporary reprieve from high gasoline prices, we see over the horizon a world where fuel-burning vehicles are passé --  like dial telephones wired to the wall. People young and old today are getting less ego satisfaction and more frustration out of the burden of owning a personal vehicle. Today, it is a necessity to be a full participant in US life. But the costs! The hassles! The dangers! Owning a car hardly seems worth it for more and more people.

No wonder many are kissing off the drudgery, renting when needed, and seeking the advantages of living in neighborhoods where walking and biking are safe and easy. There taxi and bus services are more available, and distances to travel are shorter. And maybe in the future a pod-station will anchor a local community hub.

Ripple Effects in the Urban System

If a large shift in mobility patterns were to happen, the places we want to get to (for work, shopping, socializing, sports, worship, and back) will need fewer parking spaces. Landscaped trails and gardens can replace parking lots. New housing, perhaps with no parking requirements, will appeal to those without cars. With modest funds, community volunteers and creativity, your part of town can create landscaped pedestrian networks and tame traffic.

Nodes of density will become more commercially viable clustered around pod-stations. Car-free citizens will walk and bike more. They will take transit more. Most adults uninterested in kids don’t want to live in suburbs. Most seniors don’t want the isolation of remote retirement communities. We all want to be close to other people, stores and happening places.

Systems of mobility can work together,

Podcars Mean Car-Free Living

Podcars are available to expand our mobility options, making young and old go car-less. This may seem impossible in today’s auto-addicted America. Well, a comparable paradigm shift happened about a century ago when the rich and middle classes got rid of the carriages and horses. Urban America sprawled out into suburbs and exurbs and mega-regional hubs, drunk in the 1960s and 1970s on cheap gas and the mobility of cars. Now it’s not so cheap. The friction of space is still there.

Automating cars won’t immediately reduce traffic. It does, however, do something much more important: automated mobility lessens the need to spend, on average, $10,000 a year to own and operate a personal car.

CARBON KILLERS

Mothers and other good citizens in fracking country -- New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and beyond-- are ardently protesting the dangers and foolishness of violating the earth and its precious groundwaters to squeeze out the last of once vast oil and natural gas resources that we have burned through over the last century.  Little reported in mainstream media are mothers who have gone to jail over deep convictions that we need to get off fossil fuels ASAP.

DC-based World Resources Institute (WRI) points out how growth-stimulating it will be to aim for a world “net-zero” on carbon emissions by mid-century. That’s a dazzlingly bold assertion in the US. WRI is speaking to world leaders who are expected to conclude an agreement next fall in Paris. Some question whether even so radical a shift is enough. The damages of Climate Chaos are already upon us!

The Top 10 emitter countries account for 70% of the world total.

Getting Our Heads around the Problem

How do we as individuals understand this? Here’s a dimensioning game to help bring it to daily personal life.  Imagine a ton of carbon dioxide. It fills a balloon of 32 feet (10+m). Each day, about 60,000 of them are added to Father Air, who loves Mother Earth so passionately, for each and every American! (That’s based on UN estimates of world annual GHG production at 49 billion tons. World per capital estimate is 20,000. Americans are voracious energy users, although others are worse. Tripling the world figure gets a fair guess of 60,000 for the US average.)

 That’s a lot of bubbles in the sky! A progression Southern California clean services company is helping us this by its Emissions Time Bomb. It is a 32-foot inflatable balloon by EcoMotion.

Transportation is only part of this world-transforming upsurge in greenhouse gases that is altering  our climate in ways that are already costly.  Power generation dominates GHG generation. Estimates for the share of all modes of transport are in the low twenties.  So urban transport accounts for “only” about one-fifth of total GHG generation.

Will we look up to a sustainable future?

Seeing a Way Forward for Podcars

If WRI has its way, all GHG generation will need to be phased out.  Clearly that includes transportation, and more specifically urban transportation.  More travel should be walking, biking and shared modes. All vehicles need to be electric and the power source cannot be fossil fuels.

Cars are already getting smarter and cleaner. SUVs and all kinds of road hogs may soon follow. Batteries are a big deal due to their weight and range limits. Inductive power from roadway infrastructure to vehicle may solve the problem, but it’s not here today.  

A Bubble A Day

Today we have lots of cars. In years to come, they should increasingly be electric. That does mean battery weight and chemical disposal needs. It also brings on operator recharging or replacement needs.  Future electric vehicles will be thirsty for easy recharging options.

The guideways needed for classical PRT - secured with its own exclusive powered network of “track” of some sort - can make money if it is open up to non-system vehicles by purchase “dual-mode” mileage. How many fewer 32-foot bubbles will pollute our atmosphere?